Episode Six: Our Partnerships

Markets pushed higher this week, with the TSX hitting a fresh all-time high before easing back on Friday. The Canadian benchmark is now up an impressive 27% year-to-date, putting it on track for its second-best year since 1999. Not bad for an economy that was supposed to struggle mightily amid trade uncertainty.

The standout story this week was Canada’s stunning November employment report. Jobs surged by 53,600, marking the third consecutive month of outsized gains, while the unemployment rate plunged 0.4 percentage points to 6.5%. A decline this large has only happened twice in the past 30 years outside of the pandemic. The strength has effectively taken further BoC rate cuts off the table, with some market watchers now speculating the next move could eventually be a hike.

South of the border, the picture looks quite different. U.S. labour market data continued to show signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a 32,000 drop in private payrolls. That is keeping the Fed on track for a third consecutive 25 bps rate cut next Wednesday, taking the fed funds rate down to 3.50%-3.75%.

Bond markets have responded to the diverging central bank paths. Canadian 5-yr yields jumped nearly 30 bps this week to just above 3%, while U.S. 10-yr yields rose 11 bps to 4.13%. The loonie has been a clear beneficiary, rallying for the second straight week to hit 72.2 cents, which is its strongest level in over two months.

All told, next Wednesday’s policy decisions should be straightforward. A Fed cut is baked in, while the Bank of Canada looks set to stay put after leading the easing cycle earlier this year.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Our Partnerships appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Fundamentals tell us what to own. Technicals tell us when to own it.

It was a shortened trading week thanks to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and markets mostly took the opportunity to drift higher on lighter volume. The TSX gained about 4% for the week, while the S&P 500 added roughly 2.8%. The Nasdaq posted a 3.8% gain, clawing back some of the ground lost in recent weeks. With Friday’s half-day session typical of the holiday period, markets showed thin trading volume and muted volatility.

Economic data was sparse given the holiday calendar, though a few releases trickled in. The final read on Q3 U.S. GDP came in at a solid 2.8%, matching expectations and reinforcing the view that the economy has held up reasonably well. Weekly jobless claims stayed low, adding to the picture of a labour market that is cooling but not cracking. PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred measure, has shown core prices running at 2.8% YoY, still above target but moving in the right direction.

In Canada, the picture was similar. Growth has slowed but hasn’t stalled, and inflation remains sticky enough to keep the BoC cautious about further rate cuts. The loonie hovered near recent levels as markets weighed the diverging policy paths between the Fed and BoC.

All in, the holiday-shortened week brought a welcome respite after a choppier November. Whether the gains stick will likely depend on what December brings in terms of data and Fed commentary.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Fundamentals vs. Technicals appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Is this an AI boom or an AI bubble?

It was a jittery week, but stocks did make a bit of a comeback on Friday, which helped soften what was otherwise a tougher stretch for markets. Broad indices were mostly in the red, with the TSX down about -0.4% and the S&P 500 off a little more. Growth-heavy areas felt it most as the Nasdaq slipped -1.3% and now sits at roughly -6.5% below its recent peak. International markets lagged even further, with Europe and Japan seeing some of the largest pullbacks. Nvidia delivered solid numbers, but even that wasn’t enough to shake the cautious tone that has crept into the market.

A backlog of releases spanning several months hit all at once, highlighted by the delayed September jobs report. Job gains looked healthy, though revisions told a softer story, and wage growth continued its slow drift lower. Taken together with the wobble in risk assets, the data nudged market expectations back toward the possibility of a December Fed cut, despite a few officials pushing back on that idea.

North of the border, the tone was similar, but the policy outlook wasn’t. Canada’s inflation readings stayed firm, with core measures around 2.9%. The loonie weakened and retail spending cooled, but none of it was enough to move the Bank of Canada toward easing.

All told, the week felt like a tug-of-war between cautious sentiment and still-resilient fundamentals, and Friday’s bounce at least showed that confidence hasn’t completely disappeared.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post AI Bubble? appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Bulls and bears have been fighting it out for the last few weeks.

The bulls and bears appear to be fighting it out, based on a sideways market over the past month with lots of big up and big down days. Whichever one wins will dictate whether this is a consolidation phase (bulls win), or a topping formation (bears win). This certainly makes us more comfortable with a bit of a defensive tilt as this year has been great so far for investors.

It was an up-and-down week to end in pretty much the same place we started. The TSX posted a solid gain, the S&P was basically flat in CAD, and the Nasdaq slipped a bit as some of the big tech names cooled off. International markets were mixed: Europe and EM were up while Japan lagged, and small-cap growth was the main outlier on the downside. Other than that, most major benchmarks finished close to where they began.

There’s a lot of debate right now about whether we’re in an ‘AI bubble’, and the truth is a bit more nuanced. The productivity gains are real, and the companies leading the charge seem to have the cash flow to fund it. But the sheer amount of capital going into data centres, chips, and infrastructure is massive, and the timeline for earning that money back isn’t clear, especially when the technology turns over so quickly. Add in the nonstop stream of “strategic partnerships” and big announcements, and it feels like expectations are running ahead of what’s actually being monetized today. It’s an exciting trend, no doubt, but also one that deserves a bit of healthy skepticism.

The record U.S. government shutdown finally ended this week, but now the narrative is that markets are bracing for a messy wave of delayed economic data to hit all at once. Fed speakers pushed back on the odds of a December rate cut, which added a bit of uncertainty right as tech was losing momentum. Overall, a noisy week that ultimately didn’t move the needle much.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Tug-of-War appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Market sentiment has been shifting the last few weeks.

Equities slipped this week, and the story was mostly about the tech selloff. Canadian tech fell about 10%, U.S. tech dropped more than 4%, and that was enough to pull most major indices lower. The TSX was down 1.4%, the S&P fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped just over 3% (the worst week since April). Japan and U.S. small cap fell 2.5% to 3% in CAD as well. 

Markets softened, and it naturally raises the question: is this the start of something bigger or just a pause after a relatively smooth stretch? The macro backdrop didn’t offer much clarity. With no payrolls report because of the shutdown, investors were left piecing together private data that pointed in different directions. Consumer sentiment dipped again, even as GDP estimates ticked higher. And in Canada, a surprisingly strong jobs print added a wrinkle for the BoC, likely keeping them cautious.

Most of the gains in a bull market tend to show up right at the beginning or near the end. The middle feels calm and orderly, but it doesn’t do much heavy lifting. The hard part, of course, is knowing which part you’re standing in today. This week’s wobble wasn’t dramatic, but it served as a reminder that calm markets are often the trickiest to interpret.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Risk On, Risk Off appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Taking stock of what’s been driving the markets this week and the importance of staying level-headed.

After some strong global markets the last couple of weeks, the returns this week were a bit more mixed. The TSX moved lower by 0.5% and the US markets moved higher from 0.5% to 2.5%. Strong returns out of the US come from some solid earnings reports in the tech sector and what seems to be an already-forgotten rate cut. Japan’s Nikkei hit record highs this week (+5.5% CAD) due to renewed optimism surrounding Japan-US trade, specifically around rare earths. 

Both the Bank of Canada and the Fed cut rates by 25 bps this week, a move that was widely priced in. What’s less clear is the road ahead. Policymakers sounded pretty measured, reminding everyone this isn’t a rush to the bottom, and future cuts will depend on how the data evolves. Let’s hope the government shutdown ends soon so we can actually see that data!

What a week of baseball! I think I’ve finally recovered from that 18-inning marathon. I feel like I’ve aged about five years and seriously questioned my choices around bedtime discipline. But here we are! It was a tough one last night, but we have Game 7 tonight; it’s all lining up perfectly for a thrilling game. Let’s hope we can get it done. Go Jays!

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Tech Stocks, Lower Rates and Staying Level-Headed appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

What do great baseball teams, like the Toronto Blue Jays, and great investors have in common?

Just like our beloved Blue Jays, the markets continued their run this week, pushing higher on softer inflation data and growing confidence that more rate cuts are on the way. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq each gained about 1.5%-2% in CAD, while small caps led with the Russell 2000 up 2.4%. Overseas, Japan rose 1.7%, Europe added 0.6%, and the TSX climbed a steady 0.8%, helping global indices post another strong week.

The big story was inflation, or rather, the lack of it. A softer U.S. CPI print all but locked in a 25 bp Fed cut next week, with another likely before year-end. Core inflation rose just 0.2% in September, bringing the annual rate down to 3%, while shelter costs continued to ease. In the north, the BoC looks set to follow with a cut of its own, though for slightly different reasons. Trade tensions with the U.S. and a softer domestic backdrop have all pushed the Bank toward another round of easing.

It’s an exciting time for baseball fans in Canada! Not many are giving us a chance against the dominant Dodgers, but let’s not forget the last time a Toronto sports franchise was in the finals against a juggernaut team from California. Let’s hope that by next Friday we are either World Series Champions or headed to game 6 in Toronto! Let’s Play Ball!

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post World Series Investing appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

An inside look at a real-money Aretec Wealth portfolio, including allocation, strategy, and performance.

Markets struggled through a volatile week beginning with Monday’s rebound following President Trump’s Friday comments, then giving way to unease about U.S. regional bank quality. Indices still rallied though, finishing with the S&P 500 gaining +1.52%, the Nasdaq +1.68% and the TSX posting a +0.75% gain on a short week. Gold & Silver continued their historic runs, posting all-time highs yet again at $4,289 and $53.36. 

This week’s turbulence came from two sources. The familiar Trump/China trade tensions, then later renewed worry about U.S. regional banking stability. Zions Bancorp reported losses on bad loans, and Western Alliance alleging fraud in a borrower was enough to trigger fears about broader credit quality issues in the space. The S&P Regional Bank Index fell 6.3% Thursday, its worst day since the April tariff sell-off. 

Entering its third week, the U.S. government shutdown continues to keep the economic picture murky by delaying key data releases, leaving investors and the Fed flying blind. The lack of data has made markets grow increasingly wary about the economy’s true health. Despite some of the setbacks, earnings season offered some bright spots with major U.S. banks including JP Morgan, BofA, and Goldman all delivering solid results that helped steady market sentiment. 

It has been a quick shift from the uninterrupted rally that carried markets to record highs only weeks ago. While the returns this year have been impressive, this week was a reminder that volatility can return rapidly when multiple risks converge. 

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Real-Money Portfolio appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

Episode Seven: The Realize Your Wealth Podcast

In this episode, Greg, Will, and Keeley discuss the family roots of Aretec and how treating clients like family means going above and beyond traditional wealth management.

We are hosting the Realize Your Wealth Party on the evening of Thursday, October 16th at our midtown offices to celebrate our year of growth. As we share in the latest podcast episode, we are a family business, so please feel free to bring along any friends or family members who we can offer our support.

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Markets reversed this week, with most major markets finishing lower after the events on Friday. The TSX and Dow both fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.4% and the Nasdaq is down 1.3%. Europe was hit deeply, down nearly 3%, while Japan stood out with a strong 2.5% gain. Despite the pullback, emerging markets managed a small positive week, resulting in an overall fairly balanced global equity week. 

The late-week weakness came after President Trump announced a “massive” new round of tariffs on China and canceled a planned meeting with Xi, following Beijing’s decision to restrict exports of rare earth materials. The move caught markets off guard and triggered a flight to safety, stocks dropped, yields fell, and gold climbed back to the $4,000 level. Up until Friday, the rally had continued almost uninterrupted, with major indices near record highs and volatility sitting at very low levels. 

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown continues to add uncertainty, leaving investors and the Fed without key data releases to gauge the current standing of the economy. It’s been a remarkable run the past few months, but this week marked the first real stumble in a while. With that said, the broader trend remains strong, markets are still up double digits over the past year, powered by earnings growth and a resilient economy. Whether this pullback proves a brief reset or the start of a more cautious tone will depend on how earnings season kicks off next week.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Family Business appeared first on Aretec Wealth.

In this video, get to know Keeley, Greg and Will, as we talk about women and wealth, our stories and what the future holds.

We are hosting the Realize Your Wealth Party on the evening of Thursday, October 16th at our midtown offices to celebrate our year of growth. Get to know Keeley, Will, and Greg in this podcast episode before we all celebrate together.

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What shutdown? Markets looked right past the headlines, with the TSX up 2.3% and the S&P 500 gaining 1.2% in CAD terms. Overseas, Europe rose 3.3% and EM added 3.4%, both outpacing North America. Broad gains across regions made it clear investors weren’t paying much attention to the shutdown drama

The shutdown itself looks more like an irritant than a real market event (guess that depends on how long it lasts). The bigger issue is that it leaves the Fed flying half-blind into its late-October meeting, since they’ll be missing some official data. Markets are still convinced a rate cut is coming, maybe even more likely now, but the Fed will have to lean on private surveys and sentiment indicators at a time when the economy is sending mixed signals.

Closer to home, Canadian equities continue to impress, now up 25% on the year and even more over the last two years. Gold has juiced part of that run, but even excluding materials, the TSX has been ahead of the S&P 500 this year. With Canadian trade and jobs reports due next week, we’ll soon see if the rally has more fuel.

If you have any family or friends that we may be able to help, we are here as a resource. We are here working for you.

We want you to be wealthy. We want you to feel wealthy.

We want you to Realize Your Wealth.

Best,

Will Simpson, CIM

President, Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

The post Meet the Team with Keeley Simpson appeared first on Aretec Wealth.